Oscar Hopes and Predictions 2017
Every year I love handicapping the Oscars. Think I’ve got 4 or 5 years in a row so far? But dang did I crash and burn last year. I got a little fan-boy-ish with regard to Revenant, but whatever. This year though? This year is the year. I am going to crush this year. Just you watch.
OSCAR Nominations for Best Picture:
“Arrival”
“Fences”
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“Hell or High Water”
“Hidden Figures”
“La La Land”
“Lion”
“Manchester by the Sea”
“Moonlight”
This is a good list. A very solid list of movies here. My two personal favorites are simple enough to name; Arrival and La La Land. Hands down. I really really want Eric Heisserer’s movie to win. And, without a doubt, it was my own personal favorite movie of the year. By far. But. I totally do not think it will win. I really do think that La La Land, with it’s 14 nominations will carry the day and win for best movie.
Winner of Best Picture: Arrival
Oscar Nominations for Lead actor:
Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea”
Andrew Garfield, “Hacksaw Ridge”
Ryan Gosling, “La La Land,”
Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic”
Denzel Washington, “Fences”
Oh this one isn’t even a contest. Casey Affleck wins in a landslide. Gosling was good – and very old school suave with his tap and singing etc. But his actual ACTING? Wasn’t even on par with Casey. The only outstanding question for me was Denzel in Fences. Which was a very good performance, but I’m more interested in the response to OscarSoWhite response this year. I’m assuming there will be votes just from that perspective. But I really do think Casey is the one that deserves the Oscar this year. I mean, have you seen Manchester yet? Holy Cow. I sobbed. He killed it.
Winner of Lead Actor: Casey Affleck
Oscar Nominations Lead actress:
Isabelle Huppert, “Elle”
Ruth Negga, “Loving”
Natalie Portman, “Jackie”
Emma Stone, “La La Land”
Meryl Streep, “Florence Foster Jenkins”
Let me just say that Meryl Streep, telling the hilarious true story of Florence Foster Jenkins had me in stitches. It was so preposterous, that if fiction, it would have been stupid. But best lead actress? No. Portman was good in Jackie. But dismissed by the Globes and usually the Globes are a great precursor for where the Oscars are going to go. Emma Stone won the Globes, but in the category of musical/comedy, which the Oscars doesn’t have. But even so, I am going to go with Stone for best actress.
Winner of Lead Actress: Emma Stone
Oscar Nominations Supporting actor:
Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight”
Jeff Bridges, “Hell or High Water”
Lucas Hedges, “Manchester by the Sea”
Dev Patel, “Lion”
Michael Shannon, “Nocturnal Animals”
I’ll be honest, I have moonlight on my list to see, but I just haven’t gotten around to it. WHY IS DEV PATEL IN BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR?!? That makes zero sense. Who’s the lead on this movie if he isn’t? Anyway. It didn’t specifically feel like he was acting – as opposed to playing Dev Patel, which is always a joy to watch, mind you. He’s only the third Indian to be given the nod for an Oscar. (And the last was Ben Kingsley for House of Sand and Fog. I know because it was AWESOME.) Michael Shannon in Nocturnal Animals was a simmering volcano ready to explode throughout the length of the movie. Such good acting. Jeff Bridges? I watched Hell or High Water… but I swear to you I cannot remember his role at all. I remember the story and the overarching arc. But that’s about it. I’ve already expressed my love for Manchester by the Sea, but Lucas Hedges… come on. His scene where he flips out about the frozen meat in the freezer that falls out, and he can’t close again… just screams kid in psychological trauma and in denial.
Winner of Supporting Actor: Lucas Hedges
Oscar nominations Supporting actress:
Viola Davis, “Fences”
Naomie Harris, “Moonlight”
Nicole Kidman, “Lion”
Octavia Spencer, “Hidden Figures”
Michelle Williams, “Manchester by the Sea”
It was Michelle Williams’ line in Manchester by the Sea, “Can we have lunch sometime? It’s just I said a lot of terrible things. You see, my heart was broken, and I know your heart was broken too” that just ruined me. It was the one line of the year that just was a ticking time bomb waiting to happen. And it just wasted me. But it was just such a small part. Hidden Figures was a feel good story that was a really fun ride. But I doubt anyone will be Viola Davis in her role for Fences. Just feels like her year.
Winner of Supporting Actress: Viola Davis
Oscar Best director:
“La La Land,” Damien Chazelle
“Hacksaw Ridge,” Mel Gibson
“Moonlight,” Barry Jenkins
“Manchester by the Sea,” Kenneth Lonergan
“Arrival,” Denis Villeneuve
Wouldn’t it be awesome if Gibson would win again? I mean, just to be nominated again. Kudos to you my friend. Well done. What a come back story. I really enjoyed Hacksaw. But there is no way, none, that he wins. Way too much in the way of politics to overcome. Honestly, I want Denis to win this. Arrival killed it. To take this short story and turn it into a fullblown script that actually tells the story perfectly? So good. But nope. I just don’t see the Oscars giving him the nod. Manchester by the sea is so current in my mind having watched it so recently. It was such a killer movie. But will it win best director? Man I want it to. La La Land’s director Damien Chazelle is where this award is going to go. Whiplash anyone? (Did you also know he directed 10 Cloverfield Lane?)
Winner of Supporting Actress: Damien Chazelle
Adapted screenplay:
“Arrival,” Eric Heisserer
“Fences,” August Wilson
“Hidden Figures,” Allison Schroeder and Theodore Melfi
“Lion,” Luke Davies
“Moonlight,” Barry Jenkins; Story by Tarell Alvin McCraney
Sorry, going with my heart on this one. Eric Heisserer is my vote here. And this is just from my conviction that it was nearly impossible to get this screenplay written and to maintain the message and voice correctly. It has to be Eric here. Has to be.
Winner of Adapted Screenplay: Eric Heisserer
Original screenplay:
“20th Century Women,” Mike Mills
“Hell or High Water,” Taylor Sheridan
“La La Land,” Damien Chazelle
“The Lobster,” Yorgos Lanthimos, Efthimis Filippou
“Manchester by the Sea,” Kenneth Lonergan
The screenplay for 20th Century Women is actually widely available online. I actually enjoyed the script more than the movie. But I’m guessing I’m not the right demographic? The Lobster? Oh my gosh. Such a deep and disturbingly poignant screenplay. We have been discussing it since it’s release over here if you want to join us. But is it too weird for best screenplay? It is beyond bizarre. And yet discusses extraordinarily important biases in our society. Which brings us back to Manchester by the Sea (currently working on a write up for this one) and La La Land. I want Manchester to win because of just how massively good it is. And yet, it doesn’t have the L.A. ties. Or the feel good draw. Or the music. Or the dancing. Bah. La La Land is going to take this one.
Winner of Original Screenplay: Damien Chazelle
Cinematography:
“Arrival,” Bradford Young
“La La Land,” Linus Sandgren
“Lion,” Greig Fraser
“Moonlight,” James Laxton
“Silence,” Rodrigo Prieto
Oh wow. This one is so wide open, I’m just going to go with inertia, and pick La La. When you get nominated a record number of times that creates its own gravitational pull of it’s own. Right? So yeah. Let’s just call it with La La Land for best Cinematography and make life easier on ourselves.
Winner of Best Cinematography: Linus Sandgren
Best documentary feature:
“13th,” Ava DuVernay, Spencer Averick and Howard Barish
“Fire at Sea,” Gianfranco Rosi and Donatella Palermo
“I Am Not Your Negro,” Raoul Peck, Remi Grellety and Hebert Peck
“Life, Animated,” Roger Ross Williams and Julie Goldman
“O.J.: Made in America,” Ezra Edelman and Caroline Waterlow
There is nothing more than a well crafted documentary to warm the cockles. Literally. I love love love documentaries. But I have not seen all of these Docs. Generally create a watch list out of every Oscar nomination list for watching before the show happens. But this one is a lock regardless. ESPN killed it with their OJ: Made in America documentary. Like rocked it. There were moments when I stopped and said to myself… oohhhhh that’s why that happened. OOOOH, that’s why he walked. OH. Now I see why America is so racially divided and so broken. It wasn’t a documentary about O.J. It was a documentary about America… which created O.J. If that makes any sense. So brilliant. Blew my mind really.
Winner of Best Documentary: Ezra Edelman and Caroline Waterlow
Alright, gonna stop there as I’m sure I’ve lost most of you already. I personally care about best editing, and sound and special effects, and short movie, but I doubt you do. If you’d like me to call those winners in the comments just ask. Better yet, maybe you should call them for me! Yeah, what are your Oscar Hopes and Predictions 2017? Come on, I want to hear which movies you think will run the boards.